As the digital transition swirls into our lives at hurricane force, it's important to remember that most of the mass media stories about technological change are generated from the point of view of those who sell the technology. History has taught us that these PR-generated "Gee Whiz" articles seldom reflect reality.

The truth is that none of us know where the brave new world of digital technology will take us. However, in times of great technological change, we can expect there will be a restructuring of the existing order. One institution already undergoing extraordinary change is broadcast television. Here are predictions (OK, guesses) about the future of the tube:

1. Over-the-air commercial television broadcasting, as we know it, is coming to a fast and certain death. If you don't believe it, just look at the continuing trend of rapidly declining network viewership. A few weeks after the start of the current TV season, the New York Times reported network viewer totals this season down about 5.75 million, or about nine percent below last season. The audience is going elsewhere. (See #10 below to find out where.)

2. Despite vehement denials to the contrary, the network-affiliate television broadcasting system, as we know it, will soon end. It has served its usefulness and is now obsolete. ABC chief Robert Iger broached the subject delicately at NAB '98., the largest annual meeting of the nation's broadcasters. Other network executives have followed his lead in recent months. The operative phrase is: "multiple revenue streams." All the networks want a greater return as they produce increasingly expensive shows. They want to sell their premium programs to other media outlets such as cable, satellite and home video. When the networks start demanding income from all of the big three revenue sources -- advertising, subscriptions and transactions -- the old distribution alliances will crumble.

3. Television stations will become independent programmers for their community viewing audience. The day will come soon when a network tells its affiliates that it plans to sell new prime time programs to multiple distribution outlets at once. When that happens, stations are going to respond that they in turn will replace poorly performing network programs with better performing syndicated fare. At this point the cohesive network prime time lineup evaporates. Everybody then jumps into the programming fray for themselves.

4. Viewers are going to pay for the good stuff. Only the dreck will be free. Remember those multiple revenue streams? The premium productions of the future will pull from all of them. You'll watch commercials, pay a subscription fee and pay an additional transactional fee if you want a tape or instant rerun of a show. Free TV (if there ever was such an animal) will not be a pretty place to be.

5. Local TV stations will become bitcasters (and that changes everything). Once the HDTV flames die (and they will), broadcast stations will no longer be constrained to transmitting just video programming. The smart station owners will transmit multiple data streams. Those streams might include video, sound, text or something else. This is the opening where a new generation of creative broadcasters can make their mark on the future.

6. News will become multimedia. And I don't just mean webcasting. Regional newsrooms will produce TV, radio, newspapers and web sites under the same roof. Many TV stations will get out of the news business and buy information programming from independent news providers that will cover large urban areas or small states.

7. Ken and Barbie at 6 and 11 will fade back into the PR business. In the news of the future, a pretty face will not be enough. Versatile reporters with multimedia storytelling skills will be in great demand. That means the digital age reporter must be able to write a comprehensive newspaper story, produce a compelling video piece and possess the verbal skills to deliver a report for radio (over-the-air, on the Net, or otherwise). It will also help to have a full grasp of still photography and web page design.

8. The best news reporters (storytellers) will become their own brands, thus competing with the corporations that own the media outlets. Increasingly, the big scoop will come from independents with no big media affiliation. The democratizing force of Internet media allowed Matt Drudge to become a star -- and that, folks, is only the beginning.

9. The home TV project studio is coming to a neighborhood near you. As television media outlets fragment and less money is available for production, creative individuals will begin making TV at home on personal computers. Writers, producers and actors will experiment with small scale television in the same way they mount low budget stage productions. Once there's a major homemade hit, the project studio phenomenon that's engulfed music production will move to television.

10. As noted in #1, the traditional television audience is going elsewhere. But where? Everywhere and anywhere their interests take them, is the answer. We predict the big trend of the next decade will be the rise of streaming media (a mix of video, audio and text) over high speed networks. It's certainly not there yet, but we've gotten a taste of it with today's Internet and there's no turning back. When the technology arrives, we'll access the media we like, when we want it. The old media models will die and those who try to control information content will have a real tough time trying to plug the dike.

Copyrigh ©1998 Frank Beacham

Frank Beacham is a New York City-based writer and producer. He is executive producer of the upcoming Tim Robbin's feature film "Cradle Will Rock" from Touchstone Pictures. Visit his web site at: www.beacham.com.