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Evolution
took millions of years to progress to the development of primates
and then Homo Sapiens. It took humans only thousands of years
to get to the industrial revolution, following which technological
developments continued at an exponential rate--performance doubled
in half the time. Towards the end of the last century, significant
changes in the human landscape occurred in just decades. In this
next century, technological advances will continue to speed-up
with major evolutionary consequences.
History
makes it evident that "man-with-tool" inevitably survived and conquered
"man-without." Even spiritually advanced humans (India a few centuries
ago, Aztecs and American Indians within the last two) were quickly
subjugated by technological progress.
That
was societal change--what about individual and personal? Are the
tools of today evolving a new form of techno-human? More and more
people are becoming walking conglomerations of various electronic
devices. I never travel without my pocket-PC, its wireless connection,
laptop, cell-phone, digital camera and GPS. Armed with these gadgets,
I can do a lot of things that a few years ago would have been considered
magic!
In the
future, people will be constantly connected to the world through
intelligent processors and communications. These devices will be
everywhere--in our clothes, our beds, our homes, all over and even
inside our bodies. Because we will interact with the world and each
other primarily through electronic devices and communications, the
distinction between reality and non-reality will blur.
The
three laws of technology are bringing about an advance in civilization
that has significant and far-reaching consequences. Moore's law
(exponential increase in processing power), Gilder's law (exponential
increase in communications bandwidth) and Metcalfe's law (exponential
increase in connected intelligence)--the combination is producing
results that are unfolding with awesome speed--bringing irreversible
change to the human species.
In his
book, The Age of Spiritual Machines--when computers exceed human
intelligence Ray Kurzweil argues that synthetic intelligence
will inevitably exceed human capabilities within the next few decades.
As technology progess continues to accelerate, computers will attain
human intelligence levels within about fifty years, and advance
to the combined intelligence of all humankind by the end of the
century. Some fringe-thinkers are already discussing trans-human
and post-human societies.
In his
article "Why the Future Doesn't Need Us" in the April 2000 issue
of Wired, Bill Joy, co-founder of and chief scientist at
Sun Microsystems, argues that our current pace of technological
progress poses a very real threat to the future of the human race.
He proposes a new ethical standard to guide innovation and he even
recommends that scientists halt potentially dangerous research.
His apocalyptic vision of the future has provoked a debate about
innovation throughout the high-tech industry.
I was
stuck in this metaphor--synthetic versus human intelligence--until
I suddenly recognized that the combination had the potential for
tremendous good. That combination is already extrapolating rapidly
today, with a vast and independent intelligence developing in and
around us--the gadgets we utilize--connected through the amorphous
and omnipresent World Wide Web.
The
web-intelligence already exists, survives and grows, independently
and inexorably. Today, when connected to the web, I can trade stocks
very effectively without being a broker, provide at least a preliminary
diagnosis of an illness without being a doctor and search out valuable
knowledge, all at the click of a mouse. Sure, there is potential
for bad and evil, but human society always seems to develop the
antibodies that eliminate a virus and stimulate the cure.
I am
optimistic about the synergy that can develop between natural and
synthetic intelligence. In his book The Symbiotic Man - A New
Understanding of the Organization of Life and a Vision of the Future
Joel de Rosnay describes the developing “symbiosis” between man
and machine. He insists, “We are witnessing the origin of a new
life-form on Earth--a still embryonic macro-organism made up of
the totality of human beings and machines, living creatures, networks
and nations--trying to live in symbiosis with the planetary ecosystem.”
It is
interesting that human DNA is 98.6% the same as the gorilla and
97.8% the same as orangutans, our original biological ancestors.
It seems inevitable that sequencing of the human genome will bring
knowledge of our biological makeup to a new level. As we begin to
understand the subtle yet significant differences, the consequences
are awesome. Technology will enhance biology through the virtual
elimination of disease and significant increase in longevity.
A hundred
years ago, the average human life span was perhaps 60 years. My
grandfather seemed old and feeble at the age when many of my friends
still swim and jog, play tennis and globetrot regularly. Within
less than a decade, the human life span will increase beyond 100
years, and by the end of this century to a couple of centuries.
And, at the age of 175, I may be moving into my fifth career--as
a doctor, after having worked as an engineer, a lawyer, a rocket-mechanic
and a clergyman. Then perhaps the biggest fatalities will come not
from cancer or heart disease, but from accidents, and war.
And
then perhaps, the new balance of life will allow humans to focus,
not on technological advancement, but on spirituality and love.
Copyright
© 2000 Jim Pinto. All Rights Reserved.
Jim Pinto is a technology entrepreneur, investor, futurist,
writer and commentator. You can meet him and look at his poems,
prognostications and predictions on his website : www.JimPinto.com
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