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Heard
of Linux? If you haven't, you should come out of
your cave. Linux came into its own in 1999, sweeping
along a pile of investors eager to cash in on, well,
they're not really sure. Just like dot-coms, Linux
has become a synonym for "easy money" on The Street.
Little do most investors realize that they are taking
themselves for a ride.
Hate
to break it to folks, but Linux is free. That's
right, free. While this may not come as a surprise
to a lot of people, those same people can maybe
explain how anybody intends to profit from Linux.
VA Linux, for example, had one of the biggest IPOs
ever, climbing 3000 percent over its initial offer.
What does VA Linux do? Sells boxes with Linux installed.
Where does their money come from? Hardware, most
likely.
Corel,
normally in a death spiral, also posted great stock
gains when their brand of Linux got investors foaming
at the mouth. So what sustains this model? Free
software. Someone with more economics experience
than me is going to have to explain this one. Not
all Linux distributions are free, though. Corel,
for example, sells Linux in various packages. The
more you pay the better your user experience. Likewise,
Red Hat sells and supports Linux.
So
I guess what we have is a new service on the market,
not a new product. Is this a viable market? Of course.
Are the IPOs worth their markups? No way. Should
all the investment lemmings whose tech know-how
could fill a thimble with room left over continue
to invest in Linux start-ups? Yes and no.
No,
because like much of what we see happening to dot-coms
today will most likely happen to Linux tomorrow.
As Andrew Leonard so succinctly puts it in Salon,
"Whenever you see this many lemmings gathered together
in one place, you just know a steep cliff has got
to be nearby."
On
the other hand, people should continue to invest
in Linux companies because they are, unwittingly,
pushing a great idea into the mainstream. The free
software movement is getting a hell of a push from
clueless investors. With any luck, this free market
frenzy will push Linux to critical mass and allow,
for the first time, the free exchange of ideas in
a business sense. No longer will it be our technology
versus their technology but our ideas mixed with
their ideas. The question on investing in Linux
companies now revolves around "why." Should you
invest to make a quick buck? No. Should you invest
to help launch a new way of sharing ideas? Yes.
Can humanity handle this kind of sharing after the
past thousands of years of idea-hoarding for personal
gain? I've no idea.
But
it would be nice.
Copyright
© 2000 Stephen Van Esch All Rights Reserved
Stephen
Van Esch is a writer and instructional designer
living near Toronto, Canada. He is the owner and
CEO of the Text Pound (http://www.textpound.com)
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