On March 7, also known to the political cognoscenti as Super Tuesday, sixteen states and American Samoa will hold primary elections to select their party's delegates to the national political conventions to be held later this summer. California is the biggest single prize in terms of delegate count, but New York also has a big bloc of delegates for the taking. Democratic candidate Bill Bradley must win in either New York or California to maintain a credible candidacy. Republican candidate John McCain must first survive South Carolina, then, like Bradley, must notch a win in either California or New York.

Each man is hoping to build on the momentum they gained from their respective performances in New Hampshire. The New Hampshire primary sent a powerful message to the political establishment. It's just that it is hard to figure out exactly what the message was. The presence of a large block of independent voters makes New Hampshire atypical in terms of the nominating process that prevails in most states.

Both McCain and Bradley did very well among the independents, although more of the independents voted in the Republican primary that in the Democratic primary. Bradley was right when he said that voters are looking for a different sort of politician. Unfortunately for him, the voters seem to have found their man in McCain.

In politics, there are two basic campaign themes: "It's Time For a Change" or "We've Never Had It so Good." Democrats naturally expect their candidate to run on the latter theme, and why not? The economy is good. Gore's campaign was a mess early on, but he has settled things down and has shown that he can go toe-to-toe with Bradley. Given Bradley's less than charismatic persona, what is the impetus for upsetting the apple cart if you are a Democrat?

McCain faces similar obstacles in his race against George W. Bush. The Republican Party regulars have lined up solidly for Bush. He has the governors in his corner. He has many leading Republican congressional figures in his corner. McCain, on the other hand, is actively disliked by many of his Hill colleagues because of his aggressive stance on campaign finance reform.

The only ones who seem to like McCain are the voters, at least in New Hampshire. But this gets us back to the earlier point, which is that New Hampshire is an odd state because of the high number of independents who vote in the primary there.

Personally, I am against the idea of independent voters being able to vote as if they were registered members of a specific party. In New Hampshire, you could walk in as an independent, register as either a Democrat or Republican and vote, and then change back to an independent on your way out. Some people think this is great. I think it stinks.

Americans have always admired independent thinking. They loved it when Mr. Smith went to Washington and kicked ass and took names. They constantly invoke memories of the old West, of the strong but silent cowpokes who lived according to a simple frontier code of straight talking and straight shooting. McCain's 'Straight Talk Express' plays directly to that John Wayne ethos.

Like I said, people think this is great. Here's what I think. New Hampshire's independent voters are just a bunch of self-appointed political busybodies who don't belong in a process that has the sole purpose of helping a political party chose its nominee. Why should an independent be able to vote in a party's primary election when he or she isn't even a regular member of the party? These New Hampshire independents show up once every four years to make their little statement, and then they disappear.

Sure, a lot of people are fed up with both the Democrats and the Republicans and don't feel comfortable with either one. That's a real shame, and it represents a very dangerous trend, because a key to America's survival as a powerful nation has been its strong two party system. All you need to do is look at countries like Israel or Italy to see the perils of trying to govern a state with too many political parties. Splinter parties make for strange political bedfellows as last month's riots in Austria demonstrated.

So maybe the last few years of incessant bickering in Washington have soured a lot of folks on the political process. But maybe that's because the parties really do reflect America pretty accurately. The country still suffers from post World War II traumatic stress syndrome. Since the late '40's they have not had a moment's rest. It's just been one damn thing after another. The Cold War. The Korean War. The Vietnam War. Assassinations. Resignations. Assignations.

All of these events roiled the political waters in ways that are still unfolding. Politics became a dirty word. Running as an outsider was the thing to do. Listening to Bush, Bradley and McCain, it apparently still is.

The hard truth is that turning one's back on the fundamental political structures that are vital to one's democracy is not going to fix anything. Independents, along with most other voters, complain endlessly about how the big money interests control the political agenda. Hello! When was the last time any of them contributed to either major political party? Where do they think the money will come from if the little guy doesn't cough up his share?

We all complain that the politicians don't listen to us. When was the last time any of us spoke directly with any elected official at the local, state, or Federal level? Do you even know who they are? Most Americans can't name their Congressman or their Senator.

In a two party system, being an independent is a cop out, and going with a third party is just a wasted vote, even if the choice was something other than the thoroughly disreputable Reform Party. It is a feel-good brand of politics that weakens and cheapens the entire political process.

Copyright © 2000 G.J. Lau All Rights Reserved

G.J. Lau toils deep in the bowels of the Washington bureaucracy. A long-time observer of American politics and mores, he now edits his own e-zine Singleminded, which can be found at: http://www.singmind.com/singleminded/