In any good game of chess, there is true competition; a give and take—tit for tat—that ultimately leads to a slightly stronger tat overtaking the slightly weaker tit.

In some cases, however, when the tat has pulled an unexpected move showing it has all but won by backing the unfortunate tit into a well-meaning but evidently dooming corner, the tit will sometimes attempt to throw the game into chaos—this could be considered the "oh shit" response—where the tit fights for a stalemate ("If I'm not going to win, I'm sure as hell not going to lose either.").

Both the politically observant as well as the less-savvy occasional news watchers of the True North had the opportunity in the past few weeks to see Canada's new political "tit" do just that.

The Democratic Representative Caucus sprung to life with approximately one-fifth of the dissident members of the Canadian Alliance party—Canada's western-based right-wing party, which currently forms Her Majesty's Official Opposition. In doing so, the DRC said it would seek recognition in Canada's House of Commons as a sixth political party, while noting that it is not actually a party, but a separate caucus of CA members.

The members of the now DRC have been sitting outside the CA caucus because each DRC member had publicly called upon CA leader, Stockwell Day, to resign—citing various political gaffes and weak leadership that have been evident basically since Day took over leadership of the party just over a year ago.

In late July, Day finally offered to resign as leader 90 days prior to the next leadership election, which he has requested the party's governing council to set a date for--the dissidents bluff was evident. Having essentially answered the DRC's calls for his resignation, yet still the acting leader of the CA, Day had obliged the dissidents and retained leadership of the party for what will now be a maximum of nine months. The following day, the dissident members, realizing they now have nothing to stand for since their request has been granted and having no viable alternative to back as a leadership candidate, have decided that they will now kill the CA as a party and start from scratch. Thanks for the effort guys and gals. Yours is a perfect example of blazing offence with no home base, much less a defence.

However, this article is not really about the death of the western Canadian political right, nor is it about the revival of Canada's national political right, the Progressive Conservatives, which, after being demolished to only 2 seats in the HOC in 1993 after nine tarnished years in government with Prime Minister Brian Mulroney, are now trying to show that they could be a viable government-in-waiting as they have been for over 75 of the past 100 years.

No. What really must be considered here is that the DRC, in its own selfish attempt to take its ball home since the game was looking like a loser, has killed any near-future possibility of an effective opposition to the governing Liberals and has ensured that no viable alternative to the Liberals will emerge prior to the next federal election, still a maximum of almost 4 ½ years away.

Prime Minister Jean Chrétien, 67, who joked prior to the previous election that he may attempt former British Prime Minister William Gladstone's record of being elected at the age of 86, now looks as though he may even rule Canada well into his triple digits. Chrétien, a perfect example of how one's mind can start to go in one's 50s, could never lose an election to any opposition on the Canadian political landscape—save one man.

That's right. There is a single man in Canada who is possibly more popular than Chrétien, and what's more, hates Chrétien with a passion, and vice versa. A showdown of the two would bring Canadians to their knees in awe of a two-sided fight rivalling that of Obi Wan Kenobi and Darth Vader.

That man is Paul Martin, Chrétien's Minister of Finance—sometimes thought to be the most powerful man in the country—except that he's not allowed to "officially" lead it because Chrétien won't step down and let him.

Martin is the perfect, and only, candidate to unseat Chrétien. He has a very significant and vocal backing within the party, he is an eloquent statesman, and he has a lot of money (he's the richest person in the HOC). However, as the clear heir-apparent in the Liberal party, not much thought has been given to his ability to actually beat Chrétien in a head-on match. The only such match was the Liberal leadership race in 1990 where Martin finished second to Chrétien, and while it had its ugly moments, it would clearly pale in comparison to a rematch for the Prime Ministership.

So, should Martin's ambition to lead, coupled with his fast approaching disadvantage (he's only four years younger than Chrétien), lead him to defect from the Liberals, could he win?

The answer is: it would be very close.

First, Martin would require at least 26 other Liberal MPs to defect with him to enable the government to fall on a vote of non-confidence, following which he would have to convince the other parties in the HOC that it is in their interests to have another federal election. The first part could be easily executed, the second would not, because a race between Martin and Chrétien would likely kill most or all remaining parties in Canada. However, if another federal election could be forced, Martin would have a reasonable chance of winning it, even without the Liberal Party behind him.

As noted earlier, the western Canadian political right is in shambles, and most western Liberals along with a significant faction of right-wing voters would side with the more conservative Martin should he make the unlikely move. Martin would likely take a clear majority of the West's seats.

Ontario Liberals and Conservatives alike would also probably tend to side with Martin on votes, but it is less clear whether enough Ontario Liberal MPs would side with Martin, and incumbents do tend to hold an advantage, especially when there is no real verdict to be passed on the current government—the election would be more about spite than anything else. With Chrétien's Liberals holding 101 of Ontario's 103 seats, I think we'd see Chrétien squeak out a narrow victory in Ontario, but that could eat a lot of Martin's advantage in the West.

Quebec, again, would be Martin territory, as the impending death of the Bloc Quebecois would most likely spell more support for Martin than Chrétien, as Chrétien is generally detested by sovereignists. Martin, by at least a handful, in Quebec.

Atlantic Canada is Chrétien's, since Brian Tobin, Industry Minister and future Prime Minister hopeful, has won an unofficial battle with Martin for Newfoundland support, and Tobin is probably Chrétien's closest brown noser for his almost shameful defence of Chrétien during the Shawinigate affair. It is difficult to peg Martin support in the rest of the region, but chances are that most Nova Scotians and Prince Edward Islanders remember the drastic cuts Martin made in previous budgets. The East is probably Chrétien's as much as the West is Martin's, but there are fewer seats.

In total, it looks like Martin could win, but other factors, including the fact that Martin would have to leave the Liberal party to run could play a significant factor as well. Here, he would have to play the "saving democracy" card, showing that Chrétien has become the leader by default in a country badly needing competition at the federal political level. Painting such ambition as heroism would not be easy, but not impossible.

In this brief analysis of support for Chrétien versus Martin, I have intentionally left out all other Canadian parties because none would elect enough members to obtain official party status. Martin's campaign would finish off remnants of the PC, CA, and Bloc parties, while Chrétien's would kill the New Democratic Party, Canada's socialist party. Canada would return to the two party system that has been dominant through much of its history, not really from the five party system that many believe it to be, but from the one party system that it truly is.

The political landscape is, in fact, so desolate in the True North, that Canadians' only hope for a break from the status quo lies within a single man who must break from the status quo that he has helped to entrench for the past eight years.

The only question for Canadians is: which Liberal will it be

Copyright © 2001 Kelly Blidook. All Rights Reserved.

Kelly Blidook will feel bad for the NDP, but not that bad.