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"…When China awakes, it will shake the world"
-Napoleon Bonaparte
The Chinese capture of a U.S. EP-3 (an incredibly sophisticated,
submarine-hunting airplane, converted into an intelligence gathering
tool beyond Ian Fleming's wildest dreams) and the ten day detainment
of its crew, put the world spotlight on the U.S. defense establishment's
publicly undeclared policy of "containment" toward China's military
and economic ambitions throughout all of Asia.
Let's take a look at the incident itself, a little historical
precedent, and of most importance, what future potential dangers
lurk over the horizon, for you, me and Joe Q. Six-pack.
As a former Naval Aviator, I have been somewhat surprised that
at the time of this writing, not one single, publicly disseminated
media outlet has observed that the Chinese may well have been
attempting to force the U.S. plane down with standard intercept
procedural flying. Basically, the two fighter aircraft get into
a tight formation, sandwiching the target, then begin a series
of precisely coordinated reductions in airspeed, altitude and
heading change. To avoid a collision, the target is forced to
make the same manoeuvers.
You don't need to be a leather-helmeted mental giant trailing
a white scarf from your cockpit to figure out what might happen
if the Chinese interceptors had initiated these procedures and
the U.S. plane ignored them, maintaining a constant heading, as
is the case say, when a plane is on autopilot. Who hit
who, how, where and when in the three dimensional world of flight
becomes relative and immaterial. The point is, everyone's
world got rocked when Wang Wei's F-8 fighter probably lost tail-end
horizontal and vertical stabilizer control to the U.S. aircraft's
outer port propeller. The result is today's bickering between
Beijing and Washington over "detainees" who very soon, may henceforth
be referred to as "hostages".
The U.S. posture is one of "regret" over Chinese loss of life
(and U.S. compromise of a bonanza of U.S. intelligence information
re: "how-to" spy technology of the most advanced nature. Public
PR about the welfare of the crew masks deep concern by the Pentagon,
CIA and NSA about what information members of that EP-3 crew
could provide under "interrogation"). However, the U.S. position,
refusal to extend "regret" to "an apology", is not simply a
matter of "pride" or semantics, as this look at the situation
may reveal to you. The incident occurred over waters recognized
as Chinese, only by the People's Republic of China (P.R.C.).
The rest of the world sees the waters as international—and
they are.
The P.R.C., humiliated by the Tiananmen Square episode, and
having bolted upright to take notice as U.S. light-years-ahead
advanced technology and rapid deployment capability drop kicked
Iraq's aggression against Kuwait quicker and meaner than any
classic Bruce Lee film, have been on what might be described
as a "quicker long march" to advance their nation's military
strength, sophistication and power, via economic reforms and
growth of unprecedented magnitude (for the Chinese).
Two significant things have come of this: first, China has publicly
announced an enormous jump in their version of GDP spending
on its defense budget from 10% to 18% (remember Adolph H. in
the 1930's?). Second, they successfully stole plans for the
U.S. enhanced radiation or "neutron" bomb. Remember that one?
Leaves buildings and infrastructure intact, instantly kills
all those pesky people, whether we're talking about "a mere"
seven or eight thousand in a U.S. 7th Fleet aircraft carrier battle
group, or say a few million souls, if an ICBM now targeted on
Taiwan or Los Angeles were unleashed. This isn't drama…-on
no less than a diplomatic level, China has actually threatened
to carry this out.
"An unsinkable aircraft carrier". That is how General Douglas
MacArthur, whose finest hour occurred on September 15, 1950,
with the brilliant 180-degree situation-reversing amphibious
landing of U.S. Forces behind enemy lines at Inchon, Korea,
is quoted as having referred to the island-state of Taiwan.
That was 1950. From a U.S. military perspective, that is true
to this day. Additionally, where Taiwan is concerned, the
only thing that has changed since is that China claims Taiwan
as sovereign territory and, thanks to a signed, negotiated
agreement ("the Shanghai Communiqué") that began in 1971 with
Richard Nixon and then-Secretary of State Henry Kissenger,
so does the United States. Sounds pretty good so far, no?
Taiwan's loss of UN political clout in exchange for Beijing's
(read on) was the bargaining chip that opened the gates of
communication between China and the West. Taiwan is a matter
of significant strategic priority as well as a sore spot for
the communist Chinese government. Back In 1955, the U.S. signed
a mutual security treaty with Taiwan pledging to come to its
defense in case of an attack from mainland China. Full, formal
diplomatic relations were established and Taiwan, not Beijing,
was given a highly coveted permanent seat with veto power
on the United Nations Security Council. This absolutely incensed
the Chinese because Taiwan happens to be where the Nationalist
Government of China, the Kuomintang, fled upon its overthrow
by the Communists, led by Mao, just six years earlier. As
far as the world (UN) was concerned, the Communists didn't
exist and this little island nation was China. As far as Beijing/the
mainland was concerned, however, Taiwan was merely a "renegade
province".
Jump ahead now to 1971: from a global perspective, the Shanghai
Communiqué legitimized the Communist P.R.C., replacing Taiwan's
representatives with those of Beijing on the UN Security Council.
This legitimacy served to further underscore the subordination
of Taiwan to mainland China, the P.R.C.. Therein lies the
big rub a dub Dubya.
Today, with 21 million residents, Taiwan has risen to become
the world's 19th largest economic state with an U.S. trade
surplus of about $7 billion and the U.S. has continued
to arm it to the teeth with war technology far more advanced
than that of the mainland. Why? Because militarily,
the Shanghai Communiqué was a completely duplicitous sham.
A ruse employed by Washington at the time, designed to get
China and the U.S. into normalized trade relations, almost
exclusively useful back in 1971, as the means necessary to
isolate America's then-arch nemesis, the U.S.S.R. Washington
was looking for a way to drive a wedge between Moscow and
Beijing, and that is what it took. Militarily at least,
the U.S. lied. Surprise!
The good, ugly and repulsive part about all of this is that
over the period of a mere thirty years, we have unwittingly
helped to create a monster. China, with its repressive, threatening,
weapons-of-mass-destruction-exporting record to Pakistan, Libya
and Algeria, isn't exactly concerned with the U.S. non-proliferation
focus du jour. From selling huge amounts of chemical
and conventional weapons to these common and U.S. adversaries
Iraq and Iran (main battle tanks, rocket launchers, fighter
aircraft, anti-tank guided missiles, surface to surface missiles
etc.) to stealing the intellectual property necessary to manufacture
the neutron bomb, the P.R.C. has more than demonstrated that
they have replaced the now-defunct U.S.S.R as U.S. global enemy
#1. The United States is the prevailing world power;
China is the prevailing fastest-rising power. The goal
of the U.S. has been to thwart and contain China in this regard
and China's goal, to obliterate any shackles or attempt at placing
them. Continuing to arm Taiwan with hundreds of U.S. F-16's
etc., etc. is the most powerful shackle the U.S. has
upon China. They know it, Washington knows it and now you, the
reader of this article, know it. This guarantees a collision
in history, somewhere, somehow. Not if, but when. The most absurd
thing here is that, thanks to the complete whoring out ("virtuous-self-interest")
of our capitalist system, the trade deficit between the P.R.C.
and U.S. has climbed into the $125 billion range, knocking off
Japan as the U.S.'s largest trade deficit "partner".
From Slick Willy Clinton's 1996 campaign to Chase Manhattan
Bank, Coca-Cola, Kentucky Fried Chicken, (the former) McDonnell
Douglas, American Express, American International Group, H.J.
Heinz, Atlantic Richfield, Continental Grain, Motorola, IBM
(who, it turns out also did a booming business with the Nazi's
back in its infancy,) Midland Bank, [Thank You] Paine Webber/S.G.
Warburg, Proctor & Gamble (who, according to one source, sold
more soap in China than it did in the U.S.), and on to Microsoft
(Bill Gates, the world's wealthiest man and then-Microsoft's
CEO met, with China's President in 1994 and afterwards, announced
a goal to boost Chinese sales by 50% per year), the big swinging
johnsons of Corporate America lined up to bend over for the
holy Chinese Yaun. For the record, the lone dissenting voice
in the U.S. business community has been San Francisco-based Levi
Strauss & Co., attributing their stance to China's "pervasive
violation of human rights".
Meanwhile, back on planet Pentagon, the Brass has been virtually
getting "the finger" from the P.R.C.. In addition to all the on-going
arms sales to our adversaries, the Chinese have laid claim to
sovereignty over the entire South China Sea. This is the same
sea that U.S. ally Japan gets most of its energy and raw materials
from. That's the same Japan under our "nuclear umbrella". Separately,
North Korea, China's economic embarrassment of an ally, acquired
long-range missile technology, then refused international inspection
of nuclear plants. Since the U.S. lost over 50,000 men in the
viciously brutal Korean war 1950-1953 and since that war technically
never ended, but has stood at a DMZ face off at the 38th parallel
since the days of Stalin and Mao and since we still maintain
an able fighting force of 30,000 U.S. troops in South Korea with
about 50,000 in Japan (primarily in Okinawa), this is kinda,
sorta, fairly important to U.S. strategic interests. Not to mention
the fact that as WWII came to a close in 1945, about 50,000
U.S. casualties resulted from Japan's fanatic defense of Okinawa.
Consequently, the U.S. Navy, the most powerful and feared projector
of national military force on Earth, has routine interest in
maintaining the status quo, earned with the blood of over one
hundred thousand U.S. fighting men.
In late October 1994, while the U.S. was engaged in a show of
force over North Korea's refusal to allow inspection of it's
nuclear facilities, the Chinese sent a 330-foot-long Han-class
nuclear powered submarine into the Yellow Sea off of North Korea
to tail a U.S. aircraft carrier battle group, led by the U.S.S Kittyhawk.
For three days the Chinese sub menaced the U.S. ships, at one
point coming within a mere twenty-one nautical miles of the
Kitty Hawk, and scrambling a few F-6 fighters to conduct fly-bys
of the Americans. This was kept secret until it was leaked to
The Los Angeles Times. Afterwards, China threatened
that "if such an incident occurred again, China's orders would
be shoot-to-kill."
Two years later, in early 1996 the Chinese unmasked their real
intent toward Taiwan. A couple of weeks prior to free and democratic
presidential elections, China mobilized forces opposite the
island nation. Then, three mobile launched M-II intermediate-range
missiles were fired into target zones close enough to Taiwan's
two largest ports to disrupt shipping. The U.S. which at the time,
happened to have another carrier battle group, the U.S.S Independence,
just 200 miles away and immediately sent it, as well as a second
carrier group, headed by the U.S.S Nimitz, into the region. The
Chinese got the message. However, a visiting U.S. State Department
official, Charles H. Freeman was informed by a diplomat that
"if the United States intervened militarily on Taiwan, China
was prepared to use nuclear missiles targeted on Los Angeles,
California".
This recent sunny historical perspective pretty much brings
us to April 1, 2001 and the "detainment" of 24 U.S. service men
and women on Hainan. In the mere five years since our last large
face off in the Pacific with China (that we know about), China
has sealed a deal with the Russians to purchase two destroyers
equipped with missiles designed for the specific purpose of
sinking U.S. aircraft carriers. Simultaneously, the U.S. has quietly
gone ahead with a massive "star wars" type program whose
specific goal is to put satellites in orbit, able to assist
in knocking out incoming nuclear ICBM's. The inflation-adjusted
budget for this program dwarfs that of the "Manhattan Project",
which launched the nuclear age in the mid 1940's. It is large
enough to enable prime contractor, Boeing, to suddenly announce
that it is relocating from West Coast-based Seattle, WA (wonder
why?), to the U.S. heartland, either Denver, Dallas or Chicago.
Although it hasn't been announced, it would come as no surprise
if mountainous Denver became the new home for America's largest
aircraft industry and military contractor.
The U.S. owes no apology to China outside of saying "about that
Shanghai Communiqué thing in '71, back when the U.S.S.R and
we were the global superpowers…Kissinger and Nixon lied
to you too? Join the club." An ancient Korean maxim says, "when
whales collide, the shrimp in the middle is the one who suffers."
This applied to Korea's position between China and Japan, wherein
Korea has been the ancient invasion route Japan has used into
the Asian continent. Still true today, it applies equally to
Taiwan, only Japan is no longer the whale it once was, China
has fast become a far larger whale and of course, the United
States of America, the other. Where the U.S. public's naiveté
regarding international power realities are concerned, the 21st
century is likely to take the bloom off the rose. "Fair" is
a child's concept and things change. It's time for U.S. citizens
to wake up to the Fire-Breathing Dragon at the gate and for
China to realize that the U.S. will not roll over and simply
hand Communism the keys to the Asian co-prosperity sphere or
a "new world order" which aligns China with Russia, Pakistan,
Libya, Iraq and every other U.S. adversary to whom they have
been selling arms, while U.S. corporate interests invested in
China.
Sadly, 24 EP-3 military personnel were stuck in the middle of
this situation for 10 days. Votes are upcoming in the House
and Senate regarding a substantial and significant arms sale
agreement with Taiwan, to include the sale of two devastatingly
effective Aegis missile cruisers. Interestingly, the very day
that the EP-3 went down in China, The New York Times
Sunday edition (which was on newsstands the previous day) ran
a cover story whose headline read: "Secret U.S. Study Concludes
Taiwan Needs New Arms".
Even if the U.S. had pulled a feint and "apologized", the larger
issue is clearly Taiwan arms sales, necessary to maintain a
balance of power favorable to U.S. national interest in that region
of the world and ultimately, beyond (ex/ Latin and South America).
In acknowledging Chinese dominion of those disputed seas, via
"an apology" Washington would have wound up looking weak
as well as non-credible in the eyes of its allies, particularly,
Japan and South Korea. The Democrats and Republicans have historically
united around supporting Taiwan's military strength. Japan's
worst nightmare would be to see a replay of the Korean War with
China assisting North Korea to overpower South Korea thus becoming
a regional extension of Chinese Communist power in the South
Pacific. Korean hatred for Japan runs deep and unfortunately,
is not without long historic cause. The Chinese themselves have
a deep-seated anger and score to settle regarding Japan's "Rape
of Nanking" in 1935, when hundreds of thousands of Chinese
were raped, tortured and killed. Beheadings and bayonet practice
were Japanese soldier's standard use for Chinese human beings.
It was so bad, even Nazi diplomats then-posted in Nanking recoiled
and Adolph Hitler's propaganda machine buried the story. Politics
does make for strange bedfellows.
Whatever the public posturing before CNN, Fox News, MSNBC, Meet
the Press, Firing Line, etc., this is all nothing the Bush administration
and U.S. Intelligence is not quite well aware of. The media and
U.S. public opinion on the entire matter is something else. Absent
a more complete and widely disseminated picture of events, H.W.
Johnson's (Theodore Roosevelt's 1912 running mate) observation,
"The first casualty when war comes, is truth" will stand as
true today, as it has throughout recorded history. The U.S. conflict
with Vietnam really began on a large scale after the bogus "Gulf
of Tonkin Resolution", a reaction to a supposed torpedoing of
an U.S. ship in almost exactly the same region. Welcome to the
21st Century.
"[As for the United States] for a relatively long
time it will be absolutely necessary that we quietly nurse
our sense of vengeance…We must conceal our abilities and bide
our time."*
-Lt. General Mi Zhenyu,
Vice Commandant, Academy of Military Sciences
Beijing, China
*(Introductory quote from The Coming Conflict With China by
Richard Bernstein and Ross H. Munro, 1997)
Copyright © 2001 Marc Mulay. All Rights
Reserved.
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Marc
V. Mulay is a father, husband,
jazz/rock/fusion/funk 'n
blues
guitarist,
composer, poet, writer, former
salesman, stockbroker,
flyer,...and
yes, practitioner of Stoicism.
copyright©
1999 - 2000
bravenewMEDIA
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