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They are the trends you were expecting but didn't
know you were expecting -- until they are HERE.
Then you say, "Oh yes! Of course." And maybe
-- when they have to do with innovations, they're
trends you wouldn't choose if you were given the
choice. But are we given the choice? No one asked
me if I wanted to deal with voice mail, with phone
menus, instead of live people. No one asked me if
I wanted to give my money to a machine, instead
of a live person, at the gas station. The trend
simply came upon me -- by stealth.
So here are some possible stealth trends -- some
you may be aware of, but many may be a surprise...and
the surprise isn't always a pleasant one. (These
are numbered for reasons of clarity and immediacy
-- not in order of importance.):
1. Trend toward mass hysterias of different kinds
exacerbated or created by instantaneous mass media:
A) Growing 'consensus' about the likelihood
of massive-strike terrorism attacks using germ warfare,
stolen nukes, nerve gas. Terrorist capability in
these areas has not really changed in the last ten
years (except for the use of Sarin by a cult in
Japan) nor is there any clear intelligence (at least
that the public has access to) demonstrating that
terrorists are planning these attacks -- yet, it's
assumed they're forthcoming. This becomes a possible
self-fulfilling prophecy since the suggestion is
constantly being made to terrorists through mass
media.
B) Millennialism of all kinds including racist-separatists.
C) Exponential growth of UFO-oriented 'religious'
cults relating to the mass hysteria over supposed
millions of supposed alien abductions, false memory
syndrome, etc.
D) Women who are being treated for non-existent
multiple personality disorders in increasing numbers.
E) The Year 2000 "computer disaster", a big
problem that some people hysterically claim will
bring about crash of economy worldwide, famine etc.
All we're sure is it's bringing about is hysteria.
*** 2. Massive and well documented growth in the
buying and selling of PRIVATE information. This
is "a huge business" according to Charles McKenna,
Deputy US Attorney. People selling private data
from Social Security database; marketing data concerning
how much money you have, credit, debt; your home
phone number (even if unlisted), etc
*** 3. Reaction against over-complex, overfast world.
Look at the large numbers of self-help books about
"simplifying your life". Scientific American reported
recently on the subject of a "Doors of Perception"
conference. People are actively militating or privately
reorganizing against complexity. I predict this
will be a very, very important trend over next 30
years. Much more than it may seem now.
*** 4. Reactionary movement in intelligence circles:
the era of Freedom of Information Act and other
attempts to declassify and open the intelligence
community up for public inspection is AT AN END.
The Senate Intelligence Committee Chairman Richard
Shelby recently said, "We need to consider new categories
of secrecy..."
*** 5. Massive increase of undersea cables for data
and phone and concurrent vulnerability of same.
*** 6. AT&T high speed data network crash the first
of many such. "We never conceived that we would
lose 1000 locations at a shot," - Sherry Nash for
Wells, Fargo that lost a thousand ATMs. Email went
down, credit card verifications, retailer product
ordering gone.
*** 7. Frightening INCREASE in hospital transmission
of lethally infective bacteria concurrent with explosive
growth of resistance to antibiotics. Deterioration
of hygiene in many hospitals, HMOs working with
overuse of antibiotics to create "superbugs".
A. The above -- not a new phenom but getting
worse -- forced research into new methods of killing
bacteria (a GOOD trend): one method interferes with
bacterial genetics, so that Bacteria cannot create
colonies; second method UC Davis researchers have
found: method for suppressing release of toxins
that bacteria use for destroying tissue (to make
room for growth) --so bacteria do not harm host
organism and DO NOT DEVELOP resistance strains.
B. But, according to an AP headline "Scientists
Warn of Major Increased Disease Threat because of
Antibiotics in Cattle Feed" - Times of London.
*** 8. A Big One: Trade deals like Nafta and now
MAI -- MAI makes it a trend. Multilateral Agreement
on Investment would rewrite the rules of foreign
ownership, and allow foreign companies to block
US laws that inconvenience them, especially environmental.
Strange bedfellows oppose this -- Pat Buchanan AND
many liberal demo senators say it undermines American
sovereignty. People mutter of "New World Order".
*** 9. Smartcards explosion? Sixty European companies
taking part in "Project Distinct" using the "combi"
card for combination bank card, storecard, loyalty
card, and mass transit pass. The chip in it, known
as "electronic purse," has multiple applications.
Cards have room for biometric ID including data
to accompany retinal scans. Will retinal scans to
be used at ATMs?
*** 10. Various broadcast signals increasingly interfering
with equipment: First noticed when airlines asked
us not to use cellular phones on board, now CNN
reports a Dallas TV station's new HDTV transmitter
(coming online bigtime, those things) caused heart
monitor equipment to stop working at Baylor U Medical
Center.
*** 11. Crime Trends: According to the US Justice
Department serious violent crime levels are decreasing,
but arrests for drug abuse are increasing. The numbers
of children murdered by caregivers largely due to
drug abuse has increased. There has been an increase
in incarceration, longer incarceration for violent
crimes, more executions are factors. Expenditures
for criminal justice much increased.
*** 12. Debit cards may be replacing credit cards
which quickly deduct money directly from one's account;
more people say they are using credit cards LESS
than two or three years ago. People in general reacting
against credit debt. Continues movement toward electronic
cash, away from paper currency. Growth of online
buying also continues that movement.
*** 13. Estrogen pollution and side effects causing
possible increase in breast cancer and correlate
with measurable decline in sperm counts.
*** 14. Demographic Creep: Rising median age in
G7 populations with its social and economic and
political implications
*** 15. Proliferating huge forest fires in rain
forests (Indonesia, Costa Rica and now Brazil) are
reaching a kind of possible 'flashpoint' for such
forests due to clearcutting, deliberate burning,
mining, interference with water systems
*** 16. Structural electronics: The electronics
vanish into the structure; material that is itself
electronic. The whole piece is smart, no electrical
connection needed. Is it a trend? There was an "International
Symposium on Smart Structures and Materials" in
San Diego recently and engineers at McMaster U in
Canada and U of Michigan are enthusiastic about
this development.
*** 17. Quantum engineering: Quantum effects used
in computers and encryption. Computers harness 'quantum
parallelism" to speed up computations by many orders
of magnitude; exploitation of superposition principle.
A report from the Weizmann Institute of Science
in Israel shows quantum observation-interference
effects in practical ways that can be used for encryption
and other apps.
*** 18. End of American/Russian dominance of space?
Private companies making plans to put people into
space; even more relevant Headline: "Red China Heading
to Manned Space Flight and Lunar Exploration.
*** 19. Pharmaceuticals turning up in drinking water
as a result of drugs that don't break down in human
excreta. All the side effects you'd expect...
*** 20. Research on practical power of ANTIMATTER
in more than one place. Researchers from Fermilab,
for one, are hoping to generate power with antimatter.
*** 21. Fear of Mad Cow disease leading to a change
in our whole attitude toward meat?
*** 22. "Spy shops" proliferate, part of trend toward
increase of private surveillance and spying with
electronics and cameras.
*** 23. More and more machines that move independently
of us and watch us like the Global Hawk, new UNMANNED
spyplane; RPVS with cameras of all kinds, some very
small; unmanned military vehicles for many purposes.
*** 24. Microscopic drug delivery systems - trend
or just an event?
*** Do you hear the strange cry -- of a strange
infant?
Copyright © 1999 John Shirley All
Rights Reserved
John
Shirley is the award winning author of Black Butterflies,
Wetbones, "Really Really Really Really Weird Stories",
and Eclipse, among many others. Eclipse, the first
book of his cyberpunk trilogy, has just been reissued,
revised and updated, by Babbage Press, www.babbagepress.com
Check
out the unofficial authorized John Shirley Website
at: www.darkecho.com/johnshirley
Is
the electronic world branching off in too many directions
for you to keep up, to keep informed, to keep your
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