STEALTH TRENDS
by John Shirley
They are the trends you were expecting but didn't know you were expecting -- until they are HERE. Then you say, "Oh yes! Of course." And maybe -- when they have to do with innovations, they're trends you wouldn't choose if you were given the choice. But are we given the choice? No one asked me if I wanted to deal with voice mail, with phone menus, instead of live people. No one asked me if I wanted to give my money to a machine, instead of a live person, at the gas station. The trend simply came upon me -- by stealth.
So here are some possible stealth trends -- some you may be aware of, but many may be a surprise...and the surprise isn't always a pleasant one. (These are numbered for reasons of clarity and immediacy -- not in order of importance.):
1. Trend toward mass hysterias of different kinds exacerbated or created by instantaneous mass media:
A) Growing 'consensus' about the likelihood of massive-strike terrorism attacks using germ warfare, stolen nukes, nerve gas. Terrorist capability in these areas has not really changed in the last ten years (except for the use of Sarin by a cult in Japan) nor is there any clear intelligence (at least that the public has access to) demonstrating that terrorists are planning these attacks -- yet, it's assumed they're forthcoming. This becomes a possible self-fulfilling prophecy since the suggestion is constantly being made to terrorists through mass media.
B) Millennialism of all kinds including racist-separatists.
C) Exponential growth of UFO-oriented 'religious' cults relating to the mass hysteria over supposed millions of supposed alien abductions, false memory syndrome, etc.
D) Women who are being treated for non-existent multiple personality disorders in increasing numbers.
E) The Year 2000 "computer disaster", a big problem that some people hysterically claim will bring about crash of economy worldwide, famine etc. All we're sure is it's bringing about is hysteria.
*** 2. Massive and well documented growth in the buying and selling of PRIVATE information. This is "a huge business" according to Charles McKenna, Deputy US Attorney. People selling private data from Social Security database; marketing data concerning how much money you have, credit, debt; your home phone number (even if unlisted), etc
*** 3. Reaction against over-complex, overfast world. Look at the large numbers of self-help books about "simplifying your life". Scientific American reported recently on the subject of a "Doors of Perception" conference. People are actively militating or privately reorganizing against complexity. I predict this will be a very, very important trend over next 30 years. Much more than it may seem now.
*** 4. Reactionary movement in intelligence circles: the era of Freedom of Information Act and other attempts to declassify and open the intelligence community up for public inspection is AT AN END. The Senate Intelligence Committee Chairman Richard Shelby recently said, "We need to consider new categories of secrecy..."
*** 5. Massive increase of undersea cables for data and phone and concurrent vulnerability of same.
*** 6. AT&T high speed data network crash the first of many such. "We never conceived that we would lose 1000 locations at a shot," - Sherry Nash for Wells, Fargo that lost a thousand ATMs. Email went down, credit card verifications, retailer product ordering gone.
*** 7. Frightening INCREASE in hospital transmission of lethally infective bacteria concurrent with explosive growth of resistance to antibiotics. Deterioration of hygiene in many hospitals, HMOs working with overuse of antibiotics to create "superbugs".
A. The above -- not a new phenom but getting worse -- forced research into new methods of killing bacteria (a GOOD trend): one method interferes with bacterial genetics, so that Bacteria cannot create colonies; second method UC Davis researchers have found: method for suppressing release of toxins that bacteria use for destroying tissue (to make room for growth) --so bacteria do not harm host organism and DO NOT DEVELOP resistance strains.
B. But, according to an AP headline "Scientists Warn of Major Increased Disease Threat because of Antibiotics in Cattle Feed" - Times of London.
*** 8. A Big One: Trade deals like Nafta and now MAI -- MAI makes it a trend. Multilateral Agreement on Investment would rewrite the rules of foreign ownership, and allow foreign companies to block US laws that inconvenience them, especially environmental. Strange bedfellows oppose this -- Pat Buchanan AND many liberal demo senators say it undermines American sovereignty. People mutter of "New World Order".
*** 9. Smartcards explosion? Sixty European companies taking part in "Project Distinct" using the "combi" card for combination bank card, storecard, loyalty card, and mass transit pass. The chip in it, known as "electronic purse," has multiple applications. Cards have room for biometric ID including data to accompany retinal scans. Will retinal scans to be used at ATMs?
*** 10. Various broadcast signals increasingly interfering with equipment: First noticed when airlines asked us not to use cellular phones on board, now CNN reports a Dallas TV station's new HDTV transmitter (coming online bigtime, those things) caused heart monitor equipment to stop working at Baylor U Medical Center.
*** 11. Crime Trends: According to the US Justice Department serious violent crime levels are decreasing, but arrests for drug abuse are increasing. The numbers of children murdered by caregivers largely due to drug abuse has increased. There has been an increase in incarceration, longer incarceration for violent crimes, more executions are factors. Expenditures for criminal justice much increased.
*** 12. Debit cards may be replacing credit cards which quickly deduct money directly from one's account; more people say they are using credit cards LESS than two or three years ago. People in general reacting against credit debt. Continues movement toward electronic cash, away from paper currency. Growth of online buying also continues that movement.
*** 13. Estrogen pollution and side effects causing possible increase in breast cancer and correlate with measurable decline in sperm counts.
*** 14. Demographic Creep: Rising median age in G7 populations with its social and economic and political implications
*** 15. Proliferating huge forest fires in rain forests (Indonesia, Costa Rica and now Brazil) are reaching a kind of possible 'flashpoint' for such forests due to clearcutting, deliberate burning, mining, interference with water systems
*** 16. Structural electronics: The electronics vanish into the structure; material that is itself electronic. The whole piece is smart, no electrical connection needed. Is it a trend? There was an "International Symposium on Smart Structures and Materials" in San Diego recently and engineers at McMaster U in Canada and U of Michigan are enthusiastic about this development.
*** 17. Quantum engineering: Quantum effects used in computers and encryption. Computers harness 'quantum parallelism" to speed up computations by many orders of magnitude; exploitation of superposition principle. A report from the Weizmann Institute of Science in Israel shows quantum observation-interference effects in practical ways that can be used for encryption and other apps.
*** 18. End of American/Russian dominance of space? Private companies making plans to put people into space; even more relevant Headline: "Red China Heading to Manned Space Flight and Lunar Exploration.
*** 19. Pharmaceuticals turning up in drinking water as a result of drugs that don't break down in human excreta. All the side effects you'd expect...
*** 20. Research on practical power of ANTIMATTER in more than one place. Researchers from Fermilab, for one, are hoping to generate power with antimatter.
*** 21. Fear of Mad Cow disease leading to a change in our whole attitude toward meat?
*** 22. "Spy shops" proliferate, part of trend toward increase of private surveillance and spying with electronics and cameras.
*** 23. More and more machines that move independently of us and watch us like the Global Hawk, new UNMANNED spyplane; RPVS with cameras of all kinds, some very small; unmanned military vehicles for many purposes.
*** 24. Microscopic drug delivery systems - trend or just an event?
*** Do you hear the strange cry -- of a strange infant?
Copyright © 1999 John Shirley All Rights Reserved
John Shirley is the award winning author of Black Butterflies, Wetbones, "Really Really Really Really Weird Stories", and Eclipse, among many others. Eclipse, the first book of his cyberpunk trilogy, has just been reissued, revised and updated, by Babbage Press, www.babbagepress.com
Check out the unofficial authorized John Shirley Website at: www.darkecho.com/johnshirley